Archive: Jay Hanson’s Dieoff references list

The old Peak Oil readings are archived–many of them–here.

Going off the energy cliff (global liquid fuels supply)

This chart done by the Energy Information Agency back in 2009 seems to indicate an inflection point where global liquid fossil fuels supply, given in million barrels per day, “Y” or vertical axis, turns downward.  That point, a bold highlighted vertical line, arises from “2012” on the horizontal or “X” axis on the chart.

There’s a large void between projected demand and actual supply, a big white gap-space labeled “unidentified projects.”

It would seem that in addition to the other “cliffs” we’re about to go off, that there’s an “energy cliff” straight ahead.  Because those “unidentified projects?”  They still haven’t been identified. No dramatic new (read: miraculous) discoveries have appeared since this chart was made.

US Shale Gas Won’t Last Ten Years: Bill Powers

Bill Powers is making a rather bold prediction here, given that all the propagandists in the oil & gas industry are predicting “50-year supply” or “100-year supply” of natural gas trapped in shale formations.  Have a look at a few of his remarks, and please read the entire link, given at the end of these quotes.

Suppose Bill Powers is right?  Suppose, also, that ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (and gas) is right, and the global peak of oil production already has been reached, despite the manic fracking activity in the USA?  Then what?

There is no “Plan B” being prepared for how you would transition the USA to an economy with far less available fossil fuels.  It will hit in the heavy transport industries first, and hardest;  trucking, railroad freight, container ship and tanker shipping of both consumer and industrial commodities, and the air-freight sectors all would be impacted by the lack of petroleum distillates.

It will be what the economists call a “hard landing.”  Here’s Mr. Powers on the shale gas situation:

“My thesis is that the importance of shale gas has been grossly overstated; the U.S. has nowhere close to a 100-year supply. This myth has been perpetuated by self-interested industry, media and politicians. Their mantra is that exploiting shale gas resources will promote untold economic growth, new jobs and lead us toward energy independence.”

“In the book, I take a very hard look at the facts. And I conclude that the U.S. has between a five- to seven-year supply of shale gas, and not 100 years…”

“There is production decline in the Haynesville and Barnett shales. Output is declining in the Woodford Shale in Oklahoma. Some of the older shale plays, such as the Fayetteville Shale, are starting to roll over. As these shale plays reverse direction and the Marcellus Shale slows down its production growth, overall U.S. production will fall…”

“The Bakken is a very material resource and it will provide decades of production. However, Bakken production has peaked in Saskatchewan. It has peaked in Montana. It is approaching its peak in North Dakota. This does not mean that we are running out of drilling locations, or that production is going to fall off a cliff tomorrow. However, I expect production to plateau before long. Something similar is happening in the Eagle Ford in Texas. A lot of the wells there have extremely high decline rates and production may be hitting a plateau..”

Get the whole story here:

US Shale Gas Won’t Last Ten Years

Closer look at US oil production, Bakken and elsewhere

Charts dealing with US oil production outside the Bakken formation of North Dakota and Texas show a much less rosy picture than the recent IEA report claiming that the USA could top Saudi Arabia by 2020.

According to Roger Blanchard’s article on Nov. 21,

“Although oil production in the Bakken region of North Dakota is growing rapidly, production is not growing uniformly throughout this region. Production is heavily concentrated in 4 counties: Williams, Mountrail, McKenzie and Dunn.

Total production for the four counties was 14,405,620 barrels while total Bakken production was 17,830,456 barrels. The four counties represented 80.8% of total Bakken oil production. The four counties also produced 72.7% of total North Dakota oil production.

Oil wells in the Bakken region decline rapidly. From data I’ve seen, the average decline in the first year is ~60%. The only way to maintain or increase Bakken oil production is to rapidly increase the number of wells.

In a previously published ASPO-USA commentary, I stated that I expected Bakken oil production to peak around 2014. I maintain that position with my predicted peak date being 2014 +/- 1 year.

So, what about the rest of U.S. oil production, supposed expected to surpass Saudi Arabia’s in 8 short years?  Blanchard says–

In Table II, the higher U.S. oil production rate outside of Texas and North Dakota in 2009-2010 was due to higher production from the deepwater GOM in those years. Since then, GOM oil production has declined leading to a decline in U.S. oil production outside of Texas and North Dakota.

deepwater GOM (Gulf of Mexico) fields in decline are probably declining at an average rate of 10-20%/year, based upon my experience. Maybe the U.S. DOE/EIA knows something I don’t know but it won’t take long to determine if that is the case.

Get the whole story at this link.  Become a Cornucopia Skeptic too:
A Closer Look at Bakken and U.S. oil production.

University at Buffalo closes Shale-gas Research Institute; accusations of industry ties

Possibly nothing is more important about our failing economy right now than determining what the real future of the fossil fuels petroleum and natural gas actually is.  Oil and gas industry associations are spending big to convince the people that there’s so much of these fuels available through fracking that they’ll last [ x ] years (often said to be another 100 years).

A real chorus of voices is starting to sing a song that this is all a lie, just to get more fracking for gas and oil permitted, regardless of the incalculable environmental damage is being done.  Check this story about a university (allegedly) selling-out to these fossil fuel industries:

Environmental groups have been critical of the institute since May, a month after its opening, when it released its first report. The report concluded that state regulators in Pennsylvania have improved oversight of the gas drilling industry and New York’s regulations will prevent major environmental impacts. The university at first said the study was peer-reviewed, but later withdrew that statement.

…”This is a victory for real science over junk science peddled by the gas industry,” Rebecca Weber of the New York Public Interest Research Group said in a statement.

<READ FULL STORY AT LINK>

University at Buffalo closes its Shale-gas Research Institute amid accusations of undisclosed industry ties

 

 

Frack-free Colorado Site has graphic facts-blast

As the battle over natural gas drilling heats up in Colorado, an upcoming event in Denver aims to unite the opposition. When you consider the startling facts and statistics presented below, it’s easy to see why a united opposition is needed. Frack-Free Colorado will host energy experts, activists, musicians and citizens affected by the gas industry for a day of vocal opposition and rallying. Their new site is laid out like one big infographic, featuring a number of important information about natural gas fracking, clean energy alternatives and advice for how people can take action.

I am highlighting a few key bits that caught my eye, but definitely check out the full site to utilized the links and additional resources they have compiled.

Frack-Free Colorado/Screen capture

Frack-Free Colorado/Screen capture

Frack-Free Colorado/Screen capture

Frack-Free Colorado/Screen capture

Frack-Free Colorado/Screen capture

Frack Free Colorado/Screen capture

 

http://www.treehugger.com/fossil-fuels/frack-free-colorado-highlights-natural-gas-fracking-facts-infographic.html